China's economic growth center of gravity, domestic demand growth decline, no new demand and base metal demand growth will slow down, from the point of view of supply side: (1) maintain previously on 2015 copper metals output growth at around 5-6%. Judgment, copper supply will become loose, the short term copper prices will remain under pressure. (2) considering the domestic electrolytic aluminum idle capacity more than 5500000 tons and there are still a lot of capacity in the construction, domestic subsidies policy implementation, electrolytic aluminum industry will be in a state of the old and new capacity, Xinjiang, Shandong and other places lower cost production line of production costs decline, difficult to support the formation of aluminum, is expected in the second half of 2015 will remain low, the industry boom is weaker than the 2014 level. (3) the lead supply and demand relationship may still be in a state of equilibrium, and the cost of lead is likely to continue to be low. (4) zinc prices decline will lead to a decline in the construction rate of some of the smelter, zinc oversupply situation will be better than in the first half, but due to the current zinc price is still a certain distance and a certain distance and a relatively large rise in the future, the future price of zinc is still downside.
In the short term, the main non-ferrous metal products prices under pressure, the industry supply and demand further highlights the contradiction, profitability will remain at a low level, the debt burden is difficult to decline, the overall business risk has increased.
